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 6.5 wins for next year

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RCM

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PostSubject: 6.5 wins for next year   Wed Jun 29, 2016 5:57 pm

NU should figure for 6-7 wins this season.

A few factors

1. Casey has been down double digits by first media time out 79% of his career at NU. NU simply can not over come this and they don't

2. NU's offensive efficiency was god awful last season with no improvement in sight they'll likely fall to bottom 10%.

3. no improvement in sight for 3 point shooting

4. No improvement in free throw shooting

5. Most damning is the combination of horrible D coupled with no off eff.


Another fun stat

In the past 80 games of Casey career NU has been a favorite 3 times. Just horrendous

Sadly there will be little to no help from the new players. Unless Calvin is out there. There is simply not enough impact one or two players can make.

A sad state of affairs
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Maldez

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PostSubject: Re: 6.5 wins for next year   Wed Jun 29, 2016 10:24 pm

I think Niagara will win 10-12 games this year because....

* Freshmen Marvin Prochet, Dom Robb and Chris Barton become sophomores.

* Sophomore Matt Scott becomes a junior.

* Kahlil Dukes and Kevin Larkin add scoring.

*  I can't live through one more 7-win season.
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NUSuperfan

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PostSubject: A Lot Of Question Marks   Thu Jun 30, 2016 10:34 am

Tom, on paper you're probably correct. However, we'll have to wait and see if the additions are the real deal. In addition, we need another quality big to go along with productive depth upfront which I don't believe we currently have. Niagara cannot afford to get into foul trouble upfront. We do seem to have that luxury at the guard position although not so much at the point.

My guess is that if you are right we can go as high as 13 wins, with a medial of say 11 wins, or as badly as 8 wins. Either way, we're not going to have a winning season, let alone an NIT or NCAA tournament appearance. Its tough to know before a season even starts that we don't have much to look forward to other than to see if some players are the real deal, and that we might gain some minimal improvement.
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Truthful



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PostSubject: Re: 6.5 wins for next year   Thu Jun 30, 2016 1:40 pm

Superfan raises a good point about importance our front court players staying out of foul trouble . However , both Robb and Tew definitely committed fouls at a high rate last season . Losing Satchell really hurt , the lack of depth will probably result in having a four guard offense at times . Casey is making NCCC seem like a BCS program .
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RCM

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PostSubject: Re: 6.5 wins for next year   Thu Jun 30, 2016 7:10 pm

My prediction is based on stats and predictive analytics. I certainly hope I'm wrong but the same formulas to predict O/U on Vegas was used here.

Let's hope I'm wrong
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Maldez

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PostSubject: Re: 6.5 wins for next year   Thu Jun 30, 2016 8:02 pm

RCM wrote:
My prediction is based on stats and predictive analytics.  I certainly hope I'm wrong but the same formulas to predict O/U on Vegas was used here.

Let's hope I'm wrong

Maybe I'm over-simplifying things, but do your analytics basically say that a school that went 7-8-7 over the past 3 years is destined to win about 7 games in year 4? How does the incoming class of new players factor into the equation? What about the maturation of 3 key freshmen?
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RCM

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PostSubject: Re: 6.5 wins for next year   Thu Jun 30, 2016 9:56 pm

You take the total output last year
Subtract those who left and measure the new guys against replacement. Basically.. To make it somewhat easy to explain you just take out stats, put stats back in etc

You also take our coaches performance. Ie OFF efficiency, defense etc.

The weakness of how I look at it is I don't know much about the other teams they play

I accurately predicted last years season using a friends formula. I will stand by my prediction now.

Basically mal- we are so bad that the new guy won't make much difference. We have no statistical data showing any improvement. In fact NU has regressed in mostly all categories.

NU is so terrible on paper we would need a literal all American effort to get us to 11 or 12 wins.

Best case would likely be 8-9.
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PostSubject: Re: 6.5 wins for next year   Fri Jul 01, 2016 9:49 am

Well, I hope your analytics prove faulty and we get to at least 10 wins.
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Truthful



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PostSubject: Re: 6.5 wins for next year   Fri Jul 01, 2016 11:00 am

Even if there is an uptick in offense efficiency , it won't make a difference unless the defense improves . When you're ranked nationally in the lower tier in most defensive categories as has been the case , 8-10 wins is as good as it's going to get . There's nothing to suggest that things will be any different going forward .
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50YrFan



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PostSubject: Re: 6.5 wins for next year   Fri Jul 01, 2016 12:42 pm

OK, this is what I and my friends have to look forward to. We all buy two season tickets every year and sit near each other. We pay $100 plus to have a decent parking spot on those cold winter nights. Now you gents want me to believe that my NU game experience for the upcoming season will be no better than the previous three years. So I ask myself, what the hell am I doing even thinking about going to these awful games as long as Coach Casey is allowed to ruin what was 50 plus fun years of watching my Purple Eagles at least be competitive most seasons over those years. I have a month to rethink my options before the ticket office calls me.
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PostSubject: Re: 6.5 wins for next year   Fri Jul 01, 2016 7:37 pm

Hey 50..........Continuing to support NU basketball , although admirable , pretty much tells them that you're okay with the current state of the program . When long time season ticket holders stop going to the games , maybe just maybe it might sink into their thick skulls that most everybody is fed up with the incompetence that defines the program . The fact that you're having serious doubts after more than fifty years speaks volumes .
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